How sensitive is the Canadian economy to currency swings, oil prices and cross-border trade shocks?
The Canadian dollar is averaging 71.8 U.S. cents this month, with WTI crude near $98. Over the past year, their monthly moves had a correlation of 0.18.
- Canada · CAD/USD exchange rate
- 0.72USD per CAD
- Month to date−0 vs prior
- U.S. · WTI crude oil
- 98.42USD/bbl
- Month to date+14.52 vs prior
- Canada · CAD–oil correlation (12 months)
- 0.18corr
- Month to date−0.02 vs prior
- Canada · Share of exports going to the U.S.
- 66.35%
- Jul 2026−3.04 pp vs prior
- Canada · Merchandise trade balance
- 769.2mn CAD
- Jul 2026−3,432.2 vs prior
Canadian dollar vs crude oil
- Canada: CAD/USD exchange rate (USD per CAD)
- U.S.: WTI crude oil (USD/bbl), right axis
Monthly averages. Canada is a large oil exporter, so the loonie often moves with crude.
How closely the loonie tracks oil
- Canada: CAD–oil correlation (12 months) (corr)
- Canada: CAD–oil correlation (36 months) (corr)
Rolling correlation of monthly percentage changes in CAD/USD and WTI. 1 means they move together perfectly.
Share of Canadian merchandise exports going to the U.S.
- Canada: Share of exports going to the U.S. (%)
A simple gauge of exposure to U.S. trade policy, including tariffs under CUSMA.
Trade balances
- Canada: Merchandise trade balance (mn CAD)
- U.S.: Goods & services trade balance (mn USD), right axis
Canada: merchandise trade, CAD millions. U.S.: goods and services, USD millions (right axis).
Commodity prices, year over year
- Canada: BoC commodity price index (BCPI) (% y/y)
- Canada: BCPI energy (% y/y)
- Canada: BCPI excluding energy (% y/y)
Bank of Canada commodity price index in U.S. dollars, a proxy for Canada's terms of trade. Metals, forestry and farm goods (ex-energy) matter more outside the Prairies.
Canadian dollar vs the Canada–U.S. 2-year yield gap
- Canada: CAD/USD exchange rate (USD per CAD)
- Canada: Canada minus U.S. 2-year yield (pp), right axis
The 2-year gap reflects where markets expect each central bank's rate to go. A wider negative gap typically weighs on the loonie, independent of oil.
Canadian dollar vs the broad U.S. dollar
- Canada: CAD/USD exchange rate (USD per CAD)
- U.S.: Broad trade-weighted U.S. dollar (index), right axis
Fed's trade-weighted U.S. dollar index (right). When both lines move against each other, the move is mostly about the U.S. dollar rather than Canada.
Canadian exports: U.S. vs rest of world, year over year
- Canada: Merchandise exports to U.S. (% y/y)
- Canada: Merchandise exports to non-U.S. markets (% y/y)
Shows whether exporters are diversifying away from the U.S. market as tariffs change. Merchandise trade, customs basis.