Where are consumer and business conditions pointing over the next 3 to 6 months?
Canada's OECD leading indicator is 102.0, above its long-term trend of 100; the U.S. reading is 101.0 (Aug 2026).
- Canada · OECD composite leading indicator
- 102.0index
- Aug 2026+0.14 vs prior
- U.S. · OECD composite leading indicator
- 101.0index
- Aug 2026+0.06 vs prior
- U.S. · UMich consumer sentiment
- 55.20index
- Jul 2026+5.7 vs prior
- Canada · Retail sales
- 5.08%y/y
- Jul 2026−0.12 pp vs prior
- U.S. · Retail & food services sales
- 6.01%y/y
- Aug 2026+0.98 pp vs prior
OECD composite leading indicators
- Canada: OECD composite leading indicator (index)
- U.S.: OECD composite leading indicator (index)
100 is the long-term trend. Readings above 100 and rising point to expansion over the next six to nine months.
Leading indicators, change over 12 months
- Canada: OECD leading indicator (% y/y)
- U.S.: OECD leading indicator (% y/y)
Turning points in this momentum measure tend to show up before turning points in GDP.
Retail sales, year over year
- Canada: Retail sales (% y/y)
- U.S.: Retail & food services sales (% y/y)
Nominal sales, so inflation lifts the growth rate. Canadian history in this table starts in 2017.
U.S. consumer sentiment (University of Michigan)
- U.S.: UMich consumer sentiment (index)
Index, 1966 Q1 = 100. FRED publishes it with a one-month delay.
Real retail sales, year over year
- Canada: Real retail sales (deflated by CPI) (% y/y)
- U.S.: Real retail & food services sales (% y/y)
Volumes rather than dollars. Canada: nominal sales deflated by headline CPI. U.S.: Census retail sales deflated by CPI.
Housing starts and permits
- Canada: Housing starts (CMHC) (thousands SAAR)
- U.S.: Housing starts (thousands SAAR)
- U.S.: Building permits (thousands SAAR)
Thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate (Canada: CMHC starts). Housing is among the most rate-sensitive sectors; U.S. permits lead starts by a month or two.
New orders, year over year
- Canada: Manufacturing new orders (% y/y)
- U.S.: Core capital goods orders (% y/y)
Canada: all manufacturing new orders. U.S.: nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft, the standard read on business investment plans. Nominal dollars.
Consumers' expected inflation, next 12 months
- Canada: Expected inflation next 12 months (BoC CSCE) (%)
- U.S.: Expected inflation next 12 months (UMich) (%)
Canada: Bank of Canada Survey of Consumer Expectations (quarterly, from 2014). U.S.: University of Michigan (monthly). Rising household expectations make central banks slower to cut.