What comes next, and how would a rate shock ripple through sectors?
Chronos-2 puts Canadian inflation at 2.6% in 12 months (80% range 1.4–4.1%) and the Bank of Canada's policy rate near 2.60%.
Models last run Sep 24, 2026, 11:38 p.m. ET (amazon/chronos-2, DoubleML).
Macro radar: where each economy sits in its own history
Each score is the share of months since 2006 with a weaker reading than today (100 = strongest). Growth: real GDP y/y. Jobs: unemployment (lower is better). Price stability: distance of CPI from 2%. Policy support: policy rate (lower is more supportive). Leading: OECD indicator.
12-month forecast
Shaded: 80% range (P10–P90). Dashed: median. In a 12-month holdout test, the median forecast's average error was 0.56 vs 0.70 for a no-change forecast. Chronos-2 beat no-change on 5 of 12 series.
Scenario lab: a Bank of Canada rate move
Estimated same-month return impact, with 95% confidence intervals. Faded rows are not statistically significant (p > 0.10). DoubleML partially linear regression, random forest nuisance models, 5-fold cross-fitting, repeated sample splits; 43 policy moves in the sample. Exploratory, not investment advice.
12-month return outlook by sector
Chronos-2 forecasts of each ETF's price, converted to 12-month returns. The scenario shift applies the estimated rate effect once, as an illustration.