Where are cost-push pressures relative to consumer inflation, and are central banks hitting their targets?
Headline inflation is 3.0% in Canada and 3.7% in the U.S.; the Bank of Canada's CPI-trim core measure is 1.9%.
- Canada · Headline CPI
- 3.03%y/y
- Aug 2026+0 pp vs prior
- Canada · CPI-trim (BoC core)
- 1.90%y/y
- Aug 20260 pp vs prior
- U.S. · Headline CPI
- 3.71%y/y
- Aug 2026+0.17 pp vs prior
- U.S. · Core CPI ex food & energy
- 2.76%y/y
- Aug 2026−0.02 pp vs prior
- U.S. · Core PCE price index
- 3.34%y/y
- Jul 2026+0 pp vs prior
- Canada · Industrial product price index
- 13.48%y/y
- Aug 2026+1.2 pp vs prior
Headline CPI, year over year
- Canada: Headline CPI (% y/y)
- U.S.: Headline CPI (% y/y)
- Bank of Canada 1–3% target range
Core inflation
- Canada: CPI-trim (BoC core) (% y/y)
- U.S.: Core CPI ex food & energy (% y/y)
- Bank of Canada 1–3% target range
Canada: CPI-trim, the Bank of Canada's preferred core measure. U.S.: CPI excluding food and energy.
Producer vs consumer prices in Canada, year over year
- Canada: Industrial product price index (% y/y)
- Canada: Headline CPI (% y/y)
Industrial product prices (IPPI) tend to lead consumer prices when input costs move.
Oil prices vs Canadian producer prices, year over year
- U.S.: WTI crude oil (% y/y)
- Canada: Industrial product price index (% y/y)
Energy is a large share of the IPPI, so swings in crude oil feed through to producer prices quickly.
Bank of Canada preferred core measures
- Canada: CPI-trim (BoC core) (% y/y)
- Canada: CPI-median (BoC core) (% y/y)
- Canada: CPI-common (BoC core) (% y/y)
- Bank of Canada 1–3% target range
The Bank watches all three. When they diverge, CPI-common (driven by broad, shared price moves) is the least noisy but is revised the most.
U.S. core PCE vs core CPI
- U.S.: Core PCE price index (% y/y)
- U.S.: Core CPI ex food & energy (% y/y)
The Fed targets 2% PCE inflation (dashed), not CPI. PCE gives shelter a smaller weight, so it usually runs below CPI.
Core inflation momentum, 3-month annualized
- Canada: CPI excluding food & energy (% 3m ann.)
- U.S.: Core PCE (% 3m ann.)
- U.S.: Core CPI (% 3m ann.)
Annualized change over the last three months in seasonally adjusted core prices (Canada: CPI excluding food and energy). Turns before the year-over-year rate, but is noisier. Dashed line: 2% target.
Market inflation expectations
- U.S.: 10-year breakeven inflation (%)
- U.S.: 5-year 5-year forward inflation expectation (%)
- Canada: Long-term breakeven (nominal minus RRB yield) (%)
Nominal minus inflation-linked bond yields. The 5y5y rate is the one central banks watch for de-anchoring. Canada stopped issuing Real Return Bonds in 2022, so its thin market makes the Canadian measure a rough guide only.