Are the Canadian and U.S. economies expanding or entering contraction?
In Q2 2026, Canada's real GDP grew 3.3% at an annual rate; the U.S. grew 1.5% in Q2 2026.
- Canada · Real GDP (expenditure)
- 3.32%q/q ann.
- Q2 2026+2.99 pp vs prior
- U.S. · Real GDP
- 1.48%q/q ann.
- Q2 2026−0.61 pp vs prior
- Canada · Real GDP all industries (monthly)
- 2.01%y/y
- Jun 2026+0.36 pp vs prior
- Canada · Industrial production (GDP basis)
- 3.72%y/y
- Jun 2026+0.5 pp vs prior
- U.S. · Industrial production
- 1.42%y/y
- Aug 2026+0.29 pp vs prior
Real GDP growth, quarter over quarter (annualized)
- Canada: Real GDP (expenditure) (% q/q ann.)
- U.S.: Real GDP (% q/q ann.)
Industrial production, year over year
- Canada: Industrial production (GDP basis) (% y/y)
- U.S.: Industrial production (% y/y)
Real GDP, year over year
- Canada: Real GDP (expenditure) (% y/y)
- U.S.: Real GDP (% y/y)
Smoother than annualized quarterly rates: growth over the same quarter a year earlier.
Canada monthly real GDP, year over year
- Canada: Real GDP all industries (monthly) (% y/y)
Monthly GDP by industry gives an earlier read than the quarterly accounts.
Real GDP per working-age person, year over year
- Canada: Real GDP per person aged 15+ (% y/y)
- U.S.: Real GDP per person aged 16+ (% y/y)
Strips out population growth. Canada's rapid immigration-driven population gains can lift headline GDP while output per person falls.
Sahm-rule recession indicator
- Canada: Sahm-rule indicator (pp)
- U.S.: Sahm-rule indicator (pp)
Three-month average unemployment rate minus its low over the prior 12 months. Readings above 0.5 (dashed) have marked the start of every U.S. recession since 1970; the rule is noisier for Canada.
Industrial capacity utilization
- Canada: Industrial capacity utilization (%)
- U.S.: Capacity utilization (total industry) (%)
Share of industrial capacity in use (Canada quarterly, U.S. monthly). Readings well above 80% (dashed) signal cost pressure and a case for investment; falling readings signal slack.
U.S. recession probability
- U.S.: Smoothed recession probability (%)
Smoothed probability from a dynamic-factor Markov-switching model (Chauvet–Piger), published with a lag of about two months.